For 2025, the Swedish Migration Board increased the forecast for the number of people who return voluntarily after expulsion or rejection decisions from 8,800 to 9,500. This number includes asylum seekers and people who applied for other resident permits.
The Migration Board also indicated that the new policy in Ukraine that raised the age limit for young men to leave the country (from 18 to 23 years old) will have an impact on the number of asylum applications in Sweden. The board forecasted 5,500 applications in 2026, which means a decrease of 1,000 compared to 2025.
The October 2025 forecast took into consideration several changes that will happen in 2026 as a result of the EU Pact on Asylum and Migration.