The latest forecasts indicate that more than 16,000 refugees may need to be settled in 2026, which is 3,000 more than municipalities were originally asked to accommodate this winter. According to Minister of Labour and Inclusion, high arrival numbers over the past six months, particularly among young men from Ukraine, have made it difficult to predict needs. She stated that Norway cannot receive more refugees than it has the capacity to integrate and noted that several municipalities are experiencing pressure on public services.
Municipalities were initially requested to settle just over 13,000 people in 2026. So far, only about half have responded to the request, though more responses, including from larger municipalities, are expected in the coming weeks, which may reduce the gap between the request and final decisions.
The government has stated it is prepared to introduce further restrictive measures if necessary. If settlement does not keep pace with arrivals and requests, more refugees will remain longer in reception centres, delaying their integration.